BIG! Earth-directed X1.4 class Sun flare CME geomagnetic storm to hit July 14th 2012

UPDATE6 JULY 17 2012
click title to see the story:
Possible glancing blow at Earth on July 20 from today’s GIANT solar eruption

UPDATE5: 7/15/12
“Geomagnetic Storm has reached “Moderate” Level – Caused by Arrival of CME on July 14
Submitted by revans on Sun, 07/15/2012 – 08:08
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert
##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-15T10:39:00Z
## Message ID: 20120715-AL-002
## Alert Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) starting at 2012-07-15T09:00Z.”

UPDATE5 7/13/12
NOAA’s Sun Solar Storm Space Weather Update and Impacts report, July 13, 2012

“NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center update: July 13, 2012.
Video by Will von Dauster and Katy Human, NOAA.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. is the nation’s official source of alerts, watches and warnings about space weather and its impacts.
The current forecast is for a “mild to moderate” geomagnetic storm to hit tomorrow morning, July 14. This geomagnetic storm could last into Sunday. (NOTE: there could be stronger geomagnetic storming conditions at specific regions in higher latitudes.)
Stronger geomagnetic storms can affect power systems, precision navigation, communications and other advanced technologies. The current event is unlikely to trigger any significant impacts.
If nighttime viewing conditions are clear, aurora could be visible Sat or Sunday nights from lower-latitude areas than usual, possibly as far south as the northern states of Maine and Minnesota, but more likely into Canada.”

Science Behind the Scenes of NOAA’s Space Storm Weather Forecast, July 13, 2012

“July 13, 2012. Video produced by Will von Dauster and Katy Human, NOAA.”

UPDATE4: 7/13/12
Type O CME Update; may impact Earth (7/14 09:17 UT), Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars
Submitted by lmays on Fri, 07/13/2012 – 11:51

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-13T15:18:00Z
## Message ID: 20120713-AL-001
## Alert Summary:
Below is a slight revision of our simulation result on the CME associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (Activity ID 2012-07-12T16:54:00-CME-001, see alert 20120712-AL-005).

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars.
Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2012-07-14T09:17Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The roughly estimated expected range of the Kp maximum (Kp is a measure of geomagnetic disturbance levels ranging 0 – 9) is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Simulations also indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach (plus minus 7 hours):

Update3: 7/13/12
NASA Goddard: X1.4 Solar Flare Earth-directed CME – Space Weather Center report 7/13

“On July 12, 2012 Active Region 1520 produced a long duration X1.4 class solar flare (peaking at 16:52 UT), and was associated with an Earth-directed CME (Coronal Mass Ejection), and Solar Energetic Particle event. Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2012-07-14T10:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the geomagnetic storm Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe). Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events were detected at SOHO, GOES, and STERO B starting on July 12, 2012 17:50 UT) due to this flare and associated CME. Updates will be provided when available.

This video was created using:
helioviewer.org/ – Solar and heliospheric image visualization tool.
Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA): swa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov ”

More NASA Goddard Space Weather Center info @ http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/

UPDATE2 4/12/12: Via: NASA
There is a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the July 12 X-class flare. Rough estimates based on the data currently available — namely observations from STEREO-B (the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) — show that the CME is traveling in an Earth direction at over 850 miles per second.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News071212-X1.4flare.html

UPDATED:
Earth Bound CME Predicted with X1 Flare Event – 7/12/2012
via: MaKaElectric

“Information From Space Weather –
X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
Space Weather www.spaceweather.com”

original alert:
http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/20120712-AL-006

—–
“via: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:
The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/